Last Updated 22 Oct 2024
Wondering about the migrant labour or overseas workers coming into the country for this summer season, particularly now with the borders open? So have we!
We’re using the numbers from MBIE’s Migrant Data Explorer to see how the current migrant worker population compares with pre-Covid trends. We've just published an update with the January numbers and our November version included a longer-term look back at trends since 2016. Download the full charts with analysis below 📈
Update Sept 2023
Update May 2023
Update Mar 2023
Update Feb 2023
Update Jan 2023
NZ Working Holiday Visa stats—longer term trends, Jan 2016 to 30 Nov 2022
We'll post an update as the numbers are published each month from MBIE. Also, keep an eye out for our analysis on the Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) numbers that we are doing as a follow up.
Update to 30 Nov 2024
🌱This month, based on historical values, numbers are either behind in time or lower in number depending on how you look at it. The increasing population of WHV in the country is still months behind yet follows the usual seasonal trend. It is unclear when it will plateau. In practice, that means there is around 5,000 less potential people with the right to work.
🌱There has been an expected seasonal decrease in the number of WHVs issued, reaching 4,233 (down from 5247).
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update to 30 September 2024
The Working Holiday Visa (WHV) September 2024 numbers are in from MBIE and we’ve updated our charts and put them in context of the last 14 years!
🌱This month, the population of WHV in the country follows the usual seasonal trend of increasing although perhaps a couple of months later. Most importantly, the number of WHV issued is confirmed as now back at the 2014/15 level.
🌱This month we also look at WHV issued above the average. There has been an increase in the number of WHVs issued, reaching 5,253. While this now above average monthly count of 5,000 from previous years, data from the previous years shows that this average can be well exceeded.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update to 31 July 2024
Stats for the first two quarters of 2024 are now out in Aug 2024 and we’ve also looked back 14 years!
🌱 This month, the population WHV in the country follows the usual seasonal dipping trend not seen since Covid. Most importantly, the number of WHV issued has further reduced now back at the 2014 level.
🌱 There has been a slight increase in the number of WHVs issued, reaching 4,344 (a roughly 10% increase at the annual level taking into account the Covid spike). It is now 15% under the average monthly count of 5,000 from previous years.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update to 31 Dec 2023
Here’s what we can see in the WHV data (stats for the last quarter 2023 are only now out in Jan 2024):
🌱 This month, the population WHV in the country follows the usual dipping trend. Most importantly, the number of WHV issued appears lower than the historical base rage (30-40K). One thought is that the WHV population is following the pre-Covid trend of reducing.
🌱There has been a continued decrease in the number of WHVs issued, reaching 3,402 (a roughly 20% reduction). It is now 30% under the average monthly count of 5,000 from previous years.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update 30 Sept 2023
Here’s what we can see in the WHV data:
This month, the population of WHV in the country looks to be growing again like last year, and the number of WHV issued is on the increase bringing it back around the historical base rage (30-40K).
🌱 The population WHV (still living in the country) is stable and increasing—there are almost just under 31,000 people (10% up from last month).
🌱There has been a decrease in the number of WHVs issued, reaching 4,332 (an roughly 20% reduction). It is now 20 % under the average monthly count of 5,000 from previous years.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update 31 August 2023
Here’s what we can see in the WHV data:
This month, the population of WHV in the country looks to be have levelled off back at pre-Covid levels, and the number of WHV issued is on the increase bringing it back to the historical base.
🌱 The population WHV (still living in the country) is stable—there are almost just over 27,000 people, the same as previous months.
🌱There has been a increase in the number of WHVs issued, reaching 4,938 (an over 40% increase in the last two months). It is now back to the average monthly count of 5,000 from previous years.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update 30 June 2023
Here’s what we can see in the WHV data:
This month, the population of WHV in the country looks to be back at pre-Covid levels but bucking the trend of declining to remain stable, and the number of WHV issued is slightly on the increase again but effectively also remaining stable.
🌱 The population WHV (still living in the country) is stable—there are almost just over 27,000 people, the same as last month.
🌱 There has been a slight increase in the number of WHVs issued, reaching 3,300 (a 5% month-on-month increase). However, it still only represents two-thirds of the average monthly count of 5,000 from previous years.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update 31 May 2023
Here’s what we can see in the WHV data:
This month, the population of WHV in the country looks to be back at pre-Covid levels and declining as expected, and the number of WHV issued is on the increase again.
🌱 The population WHV (still living in the country) has had its peak as expected—there are almost just over 28,000 people, and that's down around another 1,000 from last month.
🌱 There has been a notable increase in the number of WHVs issued, reaching 3,200 (an increment of 700). However, it still represents two-thirds of the average monthly count of 5,000 from previous years.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update 30 Apr 2023
Here’s what we can see in the WHV data:
This month, the population of WHV in the country is now back at pre-Covid levels, but the number of WHV issued is still only half the level of past years.
🌱 The population WHV (still living in the country) has had its peak as expected—there are almost just over 28,000 people, and that's down around a 1,000 from last month. Apart from being three months later than usual, the interesting point is that population WHV is now back at pre-Covid levels.
🌱 The number of WHV issued has gone down to 2,500 (a drop of 500). In past years, it used to be around 5,000 per month.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update 31 March 2023
NZ Working Holiday Visa stats—update 31 Mar 2023
Here’s what we can see in the WHV data:
Very interesting results this month with trends now looking to be the reverse of historical ones in both WHV issued and population of WHV in the country.
🌱 The number of WHV issued has dropped and is lower than historically. It dropped to 3,000 from 3,500 the previous month and is around 5,000 from previous years.
🌱 The population of WHV in the country keeps steadily increasing. With just under 29,000 people, it is up 1,000 on last month. Historically, at this time of the year this number would be decreasing and at about the same level.
We haven't tried to identify the source of these trends but we wouldn't be surprised if weather events were a factor.
Update 28 Feb 2023
Here’s what we can see in the WHV data:
🌱 Historically, the migrant worker population available for the horticulture season drops over the Dec/Jan period before picking up again.
🌱 This year it has been different to any other year pre-Covid. Numbers just keep growing at about 3000 (10%) month on end.
In our analysis, we set out two comparisons:
🌱 one, against the pre-Covid actual level; and
🌱 two, still seeing an upward trend unlike other years.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update 31 Jan 2023
Here’s what we can see in the WHV data:
🌱 Since borders reopened to these workers in March 2022, the growth rate has been increasing as expected and slightly better than pre-Covid.
🌱 However, the absolute numbers are still below expectations.
🌱 February is the peak month for WHV numbers in NZ, so we’re unlikely to see more of these workers than we have right now.
In our analysis, we set out two comparisons:
🌱 one, against the pre-Covid actual level; and
🌱 two, against the overall downward trend (which we were surprised to see).
There’s a big difference between the two and you might respond differently depending on which one you think is correct.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
Update 31 Dec 2022
Here's what we can see from the data:
🌱 Our migrant worker population has been steadily increasing since the borders re-opened in March 2022.
🌱 We still only have about 60% of the pre-Covid working holiday-makers in NZ.
🌱 In the latest December numbers, we can see that the rate of increase has dropped off, but this is typical of pre-Covid December numbers.
🌱 The positive news is that the numbers did not drop-off as sharply as they did in pre-Covid years.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
NZ Working Holiday Visa stats—longer term trends, Jan 2016 to 30 Nov 2022
Here's what we can see from the data:
🌱 Covid border closures dramatically affected the number of workers who could be attracted to horticultural seasonal work in NZ.
🌱 The borders reopened in March 2022 for people on Working Holiday Visas (WHV) and the Government has taken steps to significantly increase caps and re-issue visas.
🌱 The current number of working holiday-makers in New Zealand is only half of pre-Covid numbers.
🌱 If there is not a sharp increase in the numbers in the next couple of months, we will be about 3-4 months behind the pre-Covid trend of peak numbers.
Download the full chart with analysis below:
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